School is Back In Session

school

Just like that, it’s back-to-school season. Tell me, where did the summer go?

As kids of all ages go back to school, with all of the apprehension and excitement that may bring in these turbulent times, it’s also a great reminder that in life, summer ends but the learning never does. We are always presented with challenges and opportunities to expand our knowledge and grow.

It appears, though, that Americans are slipping in that regard. According to recent Forbes survey, the U.S. is experiencing a steep decline in financial literacy in recent years – especially when dealing with more complex topics like inflation, financial risk, and mortgage rates.

How is your financial IQ? Are there some topics you could use some brushing up on?

The easiest way to fix any gap in knowledge is to ask a question. I can be a great resource for you, and we can discuss how your strategy is positioned to face these complex times. The market brief below gives current insight as well. Feel free to connect with me and keep the financial literacy conversation going to ensure your circle has the same potential for wealth and wellness.

Last Week

U.S. equities posted mixed results as volatility plummeted towards the lowest levels of the year. The Dow and S&P 500 indexes managed modest gains to once again close at record highs, while the Nasdaq Composite fell slightly. Fed officials commented that while the labor market still has room for improvement, inflation is already at levels that would justify interest rate hikes. U.S. job openings surged in June to a record 10.1 million, but businesses are still struggling to find qualified labor for the rebounding economy. Jobless claims fell to 375,000 and continuing claims dropped to a pandemic-era low of 2.8 million.

U.S. productivity grew less than expected at 2.3% for Q2, igniting stagflation fears. Sentiment numbers also disappointed, as small business optimism reversed in July to 99.7 from 102.5. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment also fell to 70.2 in early August, a 10-year low. Americans are more concerned about the economy, inflation, and the delta variant. Crude oil gained as the Biden administration pressured OPEC to increase output. For the week, the Dow finished up 0.94%, S&P up 0.75%, and Nasdaq down 0.07%.

This Week

Despite concerns about sentiment, market breadth, and seasonal weakness, stocks continue to climb the wall of worry. Many pundits are calling for a correction, but there seems to be lack of a legitimate catalyst to create that scenario. This week the economic calendar is rather light. Given recent economic data and a policy committee that is growing impatient on tapering, Fed Chair Powell’s town hall event today will be scrutinized along with the July FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday.

The July U.S. Retail Sales report this morning showed a contraction based on slumping services spending. Where is all the school spending? Regional manufacturing updates came with the Empire State Index declining on Monday followed by the Philly Fed Index on Thursday. The U.S. calendar rounds out with industrial production numbers today and housing starts on Wednesday. Year-to-date index performance; Dow up 16.04%, S&P up 18.96%, and Nasdaq up 15.01% through the close on Friday.

Happy back-to-school week!

Click here if you would like to learn more about your options and if we can assist you with your wealth management, investment, and retirement planning.

This website is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be specific advice or recommendations. For specific advice or recommendations you would need to meet directly with one of our advisers.

Summer Tug of War Drags On

tug of war

U.S. equities survived a tumultuous week largely intact. Investors weighed mixed earnings reports, inflation figures, and rising COVID-19 cases attributed to the Delta variant. Labor market headlines will remain in focus after the Fed’s comments, and with jobless claims stubbornly stuck at the 400,000 level, investors will welcome additional data this week with the U.S. ADP employment report on Wednesday, followed by the monthly non-farm payrolls report on Friday.

Last Week

U.S. equities survived a tumultuous week largely intact. Investors weighed mixed earnings reports, inflation figures, and rising COVID-19 cases attributed to the Delta variant. The Nasdaq slipped 1% after Amazon’s first EPS miss in 3 years. The Dow and S&P 500 finished slightly lower. The S&P 500
Equal-Weight Index gained ground as value outperformed growth. U.S. Treasury yields fell after the Federal Reserve indicated it is in no hurry to tighten monetary policy.

The Fed’s accommodative stance sent the dollar tumbling, lifting gold prices and sending crude oil higher by 2%. Fed Chair Powell also indicated that asset purchase tapering would likely be tied to labor market improvements as opposed to consumer price data. The U.S. GDP report highlighted how much the economy is struggling to readjust to the new normal. Second quarter growth accelerated by a robust 6.5%, but well below estimates of 8.4%. Some sectors continue to be held back by supply constraints, while others stress to recover from the pandemic.

U.S. home prices continue to break records, but new home sales stumbled in June, dropping 6.6%. Pending sales of existing homes dropped 1.9%. Consumer confidence remained high, as the Conference board’s index improved for a 6th straight month in July. U.S. durable goods saw continued growth in June, but the 0.8% increase fell short of the 2.1% expected. Chicago PMI surged to 73.4 in July, just shy of a record high. Inflation persisted in June, with the Core PCE Price Index rising 3.5% YoY, the biggest move since 1991. Finally, Chinese stocks remained under pressure as the SEC has stopped processing U.S. IPO registrations of Chinese companies while it considers new disclosures.

Week Ahead – Tug of War continues…

Labor market headlines will remain in focus after the Fed’s comments, and with jobless claims stubbornly stuck at the 400,000 level, investors will welcome additional data this week. The U.S. ADP employment report comes out on Wednesday, followed by the monthly non-farm payrolls report on Friday. U.S. ISM PMIs will also refresh, with services on Wednesday. Two more global central bank meetings await. The RBA may reverse its recent tapering plans amid continued lockdowns in Australia, while the BOE will consider hot inflation figures and a surprise drop in new UK coronavirus cases. Although many of the big names have already reported, Q2 earnings season is only halfway over. S&P 500 Y/Y revenues are up a record 21% and earnings up 86%, expectations for Q3 and Q4 are building.

Year-to-date index performance; Dow up 14.14%, S&P up 17.02%, and Nasdaq up 13.85% through the close last Friday.

Click here if you would like to learn more about your options and if we can assist you with your wealth management, investment, and retirement planning.

This website is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be specific advice or recommendations. For specific advice or recommendations you would need to meet directly with one of our advisers.

Massive Earnings Week – Market Brief July 26, 2021

earnings

U.S. stocks shook off a Monday selloff sparked by coronavirus variant concerns to finish positive for the week. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq finished at all-time closing highs. Large-cap growth stocks lifted the Nasdaq Composite by nearly 3% and the S&P500 by 2%. Plenty of potential market-moving events this week, from tech earnings to the Fed meeting and key economic releases.

Last Week

On the positive side, continuing claims declined by 126,000 to a pandemic-era low of 3.24 million. Housing starts increased more than expected in June, despite labor and land shortages which are weighing on homebuilder confidence. Existing home sales rose 1.4% in June after 4 straight months of decline. The median price reached an all-time high of $363,000, up 23.4% compared to a year ago. After Q2’s growth, signs of cooling emerged as the IHS Markit Composite PMI slid to 59.7 in July from 63.7. Finally, shares of many U.S.-listed Chinese companies fell sharply on Friday. This was a result of authorities stepping up restrictions on the private education industry and increased scrutiny on overseas listings.

U.S. economic data was mixed, headlined by a surprise jump in unemployment claims, which totaled 419,000 versus estimates of 350,000. The decline in Treasury yields last week shows investors believe inflation is not the biggest problem facing the U.S. economy. Instead, investors worry about slowing growth. Even though Federal Reserve officials have signaled that they will hold off raising interest rates until after inflation climbed above their 2% target rate, eroding job growth has shown investors that the economy may not run as fast as anticipated.

Week Ahead

Expect discussions to accelerate amongst Fed officials as to when to start reducing asset purchases and how quickly to taper them, although a final decision is not expected until later in the summer. Their remarks will come ahead of the first look at Q2 GDP on Thursday where 8.5% growth is anticipated, the second-fastest pace since 1983 and exceeded only by last summer’s strong rebound. U.S. consumer confidence and durable goods reports will drop on Tuesday. Tesla, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, PayPal, and Amazon all report earnings this week. The week and the month close on Friday.

Year-to-date index performance; Dow down 14.56%, S&P down 17.46%, and Nasdaq up 15.12% through the close on Friday.

Click here if you would like to learn more about your options and if we can assist you with your wealth management, investment, and retirement planning.

This website is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be specific advice or recommendations. For specific advice or recommendations you would need to meet directly with one of our advisers.

Delta Variant Ignites Volatility

delta variant

Fears of the spreading delta variant ignited a selloff today. Last week’s weakening under the hood as some areas experience significant drawdowns relative to the broad indexes. Concerns about deteriorating market breadth pushed equity indexes lower. With a light calendar of economic news to start the week, the focus will shift to Q2 earnings announcements.

Last Week

Concerns about deteriorating market breadth pushed equity indexes lower. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5-1.0%, while the Nasdaq slipped 2%. Energy stocks plunged 8%, with the materials, industrials and discretionary sectors also suffering losses. Consumer prices jumped 5.4% from a year ago. The largest increase since August 2008, and rose 0.9% on a monthly basis. Producer prices increased 1% from May and jumped 7.3% Year-over-Year. Most of the increases continued to come from sectors influenced by the shutdown, which Fed Chair Powell reiterated in his Congressional testimony. Powell also noted that the Fed’s benchmarks for tightening monetary policy remain “a ways off”. Crude oil fell 4.5% after Saudi Arabia and the UAE reached a compromise on increasing output, offsetting declining U.S. stockpiles.

Jobless claims reached a new pandemic-era low of 360,000, with continuing claims falling sharply to 3.24 million. U.S. manufacturing reports came in mixed, the New York region rose to a record 43 reading for July. While the Philly Fed said progress was slowing with a decline from 30.7 to 21.9. U.S. industrial production missed estimates in June, posted a 0.4% increase as supply shortages still plagued output. Prospects for Q2 U.S. economic growth were bolstered by a surprising jump in retail sales. Transactions climbed 0.6% Month-over-Month and 18% Year-over-Year, well above pre-pandemic levels. China, the world’s second largest economy expanded 7.9% in the first three months of the year, still strong but down from 18.3% the previous quarter. In Europe Germany’s CPI was in-line at 2.3% Year-over-Year while the UK’s 2.5% outpaced estimates.

Delta Variant and the Week Ahead

With a light calendar of economic news to start the week, the focus will shift to Q2 earnings announcements. Large cap mainstays IBM, Travelers, Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, Verizon, AT&T, Intel and American Express will all provide updates. On Wednesday, the ECB will deliver its monetary policy statement with an eye towards recent inflation dynamics and the difficult-to-assess risk of the coronavirus delta variant. U.S. unemployment claims are expected to fall to another pandemic-era low. Housing starts will highlight the state of the complicated homebuilder market.

Year-to-date index performance; Dow up 13.3%, S&P up 15.2%, and Nasdaq up 11.9% through the close on Friday.

Click here if you would like to learn more about your options and if we can assist you with your wealth management, investment, and retirement planning.

This website is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be specific advice or recommendations. For specific advice or recommendations you would need to meet directly with one of our advisers.

Exit stage right – What to think about when you’re ready to leave your business

business

A succession plan will help assure business continuity. If you’ve built a successful business, you know that having a plan is critical to making it work. By the same token, readying your business for your retirement is an important piece of the puzzle.

While there are no set rules in a succession plan, you may want to include such details as:

  • The successor: family member, business partner or someone new who will buy out your share
  • Timeframe/transition period
  • Key personnel changes and skill retention
  • Training and development of new leadership
  • Legal considerations: buy-sell agreement, estate plan/will
  • Risk management
  • Communication strategy
  • Financial considerations: retirement income, insurance, sale price, tax implications

Protecting your most valuable asset: You

Your exit strategy recognizes when you are planning to retire from the business. It can also address any potential surprises that may impact your ability to remain in charge.

You may develop a major illness or injury that takes you away from day-to-day operations. Having insurance in place can ensure your company will continue to function in your absence. While also protecting your own earnings and family, particularly if you’re not able to return:

  • Disability Insurance: All owners should have their own insurance that covers their monthly earnings in the case of an illness or injury that requires long-term healing. It may include a buy-out clause.
  • Business Overhead Expense Insurance: Provides funding to the business of any overhead expenses (such as payroll or rent) if these costs are jeopardized by being away for an extended period.
  • Critical Illness Insurance: This is generally a lump sum payment that helps you cover your bills if you have a serious illness.
  • Key Person Life Insurance: A life insurance strategy may include a payout to the business for continuity, or to your estate to minimize any tax implications. Life insurance proceeds equalize payments to heirs.

If you plan to retire, you need a plan

If it’s time for you to hand over the reins, your succession plan should address the time horizon for transition. You may want to execute a buy-sell agreement with partners or co-owners. The agreement outlines the circumstances of the exit and the price for your share of the business. Insurance can be used to help minimize the tax impact of a small business sale and to finance retirement income.

There are many tax-efficient ways to protect your business and help you transition to your retirement.

Contact me if you’d like to learn more about these business-owner strategies.

Click here if you would like to learn more about your options and if we can assist you with your wealth management, investment, retirement and business planning.

This website is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be specific advice or recommendations. For specific advice or recommendations you would need to meet directly with one of our advisers.