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Market Brief – 2020 Mid-Year Review

jim Economy, family wealth management, Financial advisor, financial plan, Financial Planning, invest, Investing, Market Brief, Market Commentary, Market Outlook, Market Review, Retirement Planning, Stock Market, wealth management July 20, 2020July 20, 2020economic outlook, Economy, financial advisor, financial plan, financial planning, Investing, market brief, Market Commentary, Market Outlook, Market Review, retirement planning, Stock Market, wealth management

Dog days of summer have arrived. For 2020, it feels like the dog days arrived in March. From the moment the pandemic began to spread, to stay-at-home orders, to lock-downs, to protest rallies, to reopening phases, and back to more restrictions… what a year, and we are only halfway home. Didn’t even mentions the murder hornets! Let’s take a minute to catch our breath and see where we have been, where we are, and where we will go. Currently, we are in the midst of earnings season. Big name stocks will report second quarter earnings this week. Last week the main indexes finished mixed. The Dow up 2.3%, S&P up 1.25%, and Nasdaq down 1.1%. The S&P 500 outperformed the Nasdaq index by the widest margin since February 2016. The markets were mainly buoyed by progress of a virus vaccine.

What Happened?

The year started off strong through mid-February. Early cases and the fast spread of the coronavirus took hold in Asia and quickly jumped country borders to become a worldwide pandemic. Just about a month from the market peak in February came the market lows in March, a 33.9% drop for the S&P index. In just a few weeks, the U.S. economy erased 7 years of employment gains. 30 million Americans lost jobs, driving unemployment as high as 22% in April. By June, the unemployment rate hovered around 14%. Still extremely high, but significantly lower from 2 months prior.

In March, the Fed stepped in and provided a backstop to the equity markets. Stabilizing and possibly adding turbo to the economy via stimulus for individuals and businesses. The pandemic accelerated tech disruption. It changed how companies reach consumers, how supply chains work, how to deal with remote employees, and still build their brands.

Where Are We Today?

Year-to-date index performance; Dow down 6.54%, S&P down 0.2%, and Nasdaq up 17.0% through the close on Friday. Last week, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said the Trump administration and Senate leadership are discussing a new stimulus bill. The end of July is the target time frame as the previous stimulus benefits are ending. The housing market reports are exceeding expectation. Current metrics show a shortage of existing home inventory, limited housing labor to build new homes, and a shortage of entry level homes for the first time home buyer. Historically low mortgage rates help boost the housing demand. Labor income across the board is surging and consumer spending is rebounding.

The markets are in fairly good position today. Much of the strength is attributed to the Fed and swift implementation of monetary policy. With interest rates near zero, investors are willing to pay for future earnings. Growth stocks have done well, value stocks have lagged. When the economy improves and interest rates rise, growth stocks will be challenged by high valuations. Communities have begun to re-open. The U.S. seems to have chosen independence over lock-down. This has led to a recent uptick in coronavirus cases. Deaths due to the virus have decreased as health care has gotten smarter about how to handle symptomatic cases. The resurgence of hiring and end of mass layoffs indicate the job market is recovering. While the decreasing layoffs and increasing hires offer hope, the reopening process has been trending in the wrong direction.

Where Are We Going?

It’s election season. From here on out, politics will headline media reports. Snippets and quotes from leadership on both sides will sway the markets. Bigger than the election is the Fed’s actions. Interest rates are low and likely to remain low for a very long time. This creates a scenario of easy lending and the opportunity for trillions of dollars to remain invested in the market. The future months will measured by the resurgence of the coronavirus, how quickly a vaccine can be developed, another round of monetary stimulus, and the upcoming election. If you thought the first half of 2020 was a roller coaster, the second half might be just as wild! Take care and be safe.

Market Brief’s are taking a summer hiatus, see you at the end of August!

Click here if you would like to learn more about your options and if we can assist you with your wealth management, investment, and retirement planning.

This website is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be specific advice or recommendations. For specific advice or recommendations you would need to meet directly with one of our advisers.

Positive Investing News

jim family wealth, family wealth management, invest, Investing, Investing Strategy, investment manager, investment strategy, retirement, Retirement Planning, wealth management, wealth planning strategies March 26, 2020March 26, 2020family wealth, family wealth management, invest, Investing, Investing Strategy, investment planning, investment strategy, Investments, strategic wealth management, wealth management

Finding good news right now can be tough. The Q&A below highlights some of the positive investing news that can result from a crisis.

What is the one positive that you see coming out of this crisis
that is least expected?

Buying opportunity! Valuations have soared during the bull market run following the 2008-2009 recession, individuals interested in long-term investment growth should consider this as one of the best discount sales in recent years. Many people I speak to wish they could go back to the 2008-2009 time period and buy stocks. Today, some quality companies are down 30-80% year-to-date.

What new businesses will break into the marketplace, as a result of this crisis, that no one expected to grow so fast?

Technology has proven to be the winner. The S&P 500 Info Tech sector index has greatly outperformed the market. Included in this index are businesses supporting those working from home, such as, video conferencing and e-document companies.

What existing industries do you feel will rebound the fastest
as things begin to return to normal?

The travel industry is taking an enormous hit. This will not last. Consider how many people will need a vacation after being stuck in their homes for a month (or longer). Or even had their trips postponed. Hotels, airlines, cruises, they are beaten down right now but will bounce back as the virus is contained. The stimulus will also aid, to some extent, discretionary spending for some. Travel is a huge component of discretionary spending.

Click here if you would like to learn more about our thoughts on Positive Investing News. Also, to discuss options and if we can assist you with your wealth management, investment, and retirement planning.

Portfolio Management Perspective

jim family wealth, family wealth management, Financial advisor, Investing Strategy, investment manager, investment strategy, Market Commentary, money manager, Retirement Planning, wealth management, wealth planning strategies March 13, 2020March 26, 2020financial advisor, financial planning, investment planning, investment strategy, Market Commentary, retirement planning, wealth management

Review of Benchmarks, Strategy, Risk, and Performance – Perspective from one of our Portfolio Manager’s – March 13, 2020

Whenever the topic of investing is discussed we are conditioned to think first of the New York Stock Exchange opening bell and Wall St. bankers in Brioni suits. And why shouldn’t we? Over the past 200 years, stocks have arguably been the most powerful generator of wealth.

That rosy conventional wisdom has the benefit of a perpetual time-horizon and an ambivalence towards risk. As we all know, stocks might be notorious for rising over time, but they also can produce nasty results if improperly managed. Very few of us are fortunate enough to be ambivalent towards risk or the trajectory of our investments – if we were, being 100% invested in the DOW or S&P 500 would be a fine strategy. That is where financial planning and asset management comes in.

As a conservative asset manager, we are tasked with two main objectives a) produce a rate of return that achieves an objective (generally retirement/self-sufficiency) and b) protect against downside and volatility. Our definition of success in both goals is directly related to the specifics of your financial situation.

Since the inception of our Total Return strategy in 2004, we’ve employed a mix of equities (stocks), commodities, fixed income, and cash to achieve the objectives stated above for clients. At any given point, we may be more dependent on one asset class or another to provide upside thrust or downside support for our clients’ portfolios. As you might expect, this asset mix is largely dependent on (among other things) the outlook for the economy, interest rates, and the inclination for risk in the markets.

In some environments, such as 2017, the stock market and high-quality individual equities genuinely are the best option for capital appreciation. In other periods such as late 2018 and 2019, a choppy market and unclear fundamental prospects warranted a higher concentration in traditionally less economically sensitive asset classes like bonds, gold, and cash. No matter the environment, we are continually assessing our outlook and corresponding exposures.

In the client updates over the past week, we noted how our conservative positioning at the outset of this decline was yielding promising results. That remains the case, and when we evaluate client performance relative to equity benchmarks (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ), we are heartened by the fact that client accounts have a) declined substantially less than the benchmarks and b) exceeded the results previously experienced in similar periods of stress.

Since our inception, having a trained eye on risk management has allowed clients to generally experience asymmetric rates of upside and downside participation vs. equity benchmarks. In other words, we’ve consistently achieved more upside than downside through the course of market trends.

Finally, we understand that the personal nature of the virus and the corresponding downside reaction in markets can be especially anxiety provoking. And while this is everybody’s first time managing through a true pandemic, it is far from our first time managing through a panicked market. We will get through this turbulent time and be prepared to deploy the capital we’ve preserved throughout the episode.

Click here if you would like to learn more about your options and if we can assist you with your wealth management, investment, and retirement planning.

529 Plans for College Savings

jim 529 Plan, College Planning, College Savings, family wealth management, Financial advisor, financial plan, Financial Planning, Saving for College December 12, 2019December 12, 2019529 Plan, College Savings, Saving for College

A 529 plan is an account specifically designed to assist individuals to save money for qualified higher education. Upon opening an account and funding with one-time, and/or, ongoing contributions, the account balance builds over time. The account is commonly invested in a mixture of mutual funds or ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds). The account grows tax-free, so you don’t pay taxes each year on the capital gains or dividends within the account. Upon needing to pay tuition bills for qualified higher education, the account can be withdrawn free of taxation. 529 plan’s are important to offer individuals and families as a way to help pay for higher education.

Advantages of 529 plans include the state tax deduction received for contributions, the tax free growth of the account, and the tax free withdrawals when used for qualified higher educational spending.

Disadvantages include market risk, for the account to grow it needs to be invested, and how you invest can vary based on risk tolerance. Another disadvantage is that if you do not use the account for qualified expenses. The growth portion of the account is taxable and there is a penalty tax upon withdrawing.

The ideal situation is to open an account when the beneficiary (your child in most cases) is born, that will allow approximately 17-19 years of account contributions and growth within the account to maximize before needing the funds for higher education. The ideal amount to save depends on the individual or parents opening up the account. This amount should be discussed with your financial advisor. 529 account contribution limits vary by state, for example in Colorado, the account can receive contributions up until the account value reaches $400,000. The contribution amount will vary based on the desired education, public vs private university, or trade school. 529’s also allow others to make contributions to the account. For example, grandma and grandpa can make gift contributions to the account on behalf of your child. Some of my clients encourage 529 monetary gifts over toys for birthday presents! And if you have more than one child, and the account is not used by the first child, the account can be “turned over” to the next child to use the funds for qualified higher education expenses.

Click here if you would like to learn more about your college savings options and if we can assist you with your wealth management, investment, and retirement planning.