investment strategy

The Grass Isn’t Always Greener – Market Brief October 9, 2024

jim Financial advisor, Investing, Investment Management, investment strategy, Market Brief, Retirement Income Planning, Retirement Planning, wealth management , , , , , ,

Hurricane Helene has left a mark not just on the landscape, but also on the lives of countless people across the southeastern U.S. And Hurricane Milton is about to reach land today, wreaking havoc again on an already damaged area. If you’ve watched the news coverage, or know people it’s affected personally, it’s easy to see the massive impact this storm has had. It’s during times like these that our priorities will suddenly shift in unexpected ways.

As we journey through the ever-changing financial landscape, it’s easy to become distracted by the dazzling allure of foreign opportunities and the seemingly effortless successes of others. The age-old adage “the grass is always greener on the other side” can often tempt us to cast our gaze outward, pondering possibilities that seem perpetually just beyond our grasp. But in doing so, you risk overlooking the fertile ground upon which you currently stand.

Amidst the daily din and ceaseless wave of headlines, it’s crucial to resist the fallacy that fulfillment lies somewhere other than in the present. True prosperity stems not from flitting from one external opportunity to another but from deeply understanding and nurturing your own immediate situation.

Your financial journey is unique and deeply personal, based on an array of circumstances, opportunities, and challenges. Never forget the powerful potential that resides in careful planning, thoughtful action, and a dedicated commitment to improvement. Contentment and prosperity are born from making informed, deliberate choices within the framework of the present. All in order to benefit the future for you and your loved ones. Having a plan in place before disaster strikes can make all the difference in your day-to-day and overall sense of security and well-being. Preparation can be a powerful tool in managing stress and uncertainty effectively.

What’s the first thing you think of when a storm threatens your household? Reconnect with the potential that lies right where you are. Together turning the dream of what seems greener elsewhere into your own thriving present and future reality.

Last Week – Hurricane

U.S. equity indices clawed back earlier losses, and interest rates jumped after Friday’s much stronger-than-expected jobs report calmed recession fears. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices ended slightly positive for the week ending October 4. September’s non-farm payrolls came in well above expectations. The unemployment rate dropped down to 4.1%, and wage growth topped estimates. A slower pace of interest rate cuts may be a likely result of the stable jobs report. Investors were reassured that the U.S. economy remains on solid footing. On Monday, Fed Chair Powell said the committee is not in a hurry to cut rates quickly. He continued adding that the FOMC will let the data guide its decisions. Weekly jobless claims remain low. However, the data may be distorted in coming weeks due to Hurricane Helene, Hurricane Milton, and the strike at Boeing.

This Week

Thus far, the Middle East conflict has only materially impacted energy markets. But investors are seemingly wary of any further escalation in tensions negatively affecting other global risk assets. There is some risk of an upside surprise in tomorrows U.S. CPI report. The ISM PMI services data showed prices charged by businesses rising at the fastest rate in six months. Such an outcome would reinforce the likelihood of quarter-point interest rate reductions going forward.

A slower rate cut pace has been the sentiment from Chair Powell and committee members who have spoken publicly recently. So today’s release of the minutes from that meeting may have little to reveal. Third-quarter EPS season is now underway and the next three weeks will be very heavy with earnings reports. Just prior to and just after earnings reports, companies are in a blackout period. During that time, a company cannot repurchase its stock. Large U.S. banks JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Bank of New York Mellon kick off earnings season on Friday.

Have a great week!

Click here if you would like to learn more about your options and if we can assist you with your wealth management, investment, and retirement planning.

Erie CO Financial Advisor; investments, wealth management, retirement income planning; Boulder, Broomfield, Louisville, Niwot, Windsor, Berthoud CO

This website is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be specific advice or recommendations. For specific advice or recommendations you would need to meet directly with one of our advisers. This is not a solicitation or offer of service in states we are not licensed in.

The first half of 2024 is in the books – what vibe is ahead?

jim Financial advisor, Investing, Investment Management, investment strategy, Market Brief, retirement, Retirement Income Planning, Retirement Planning, wealth management , , , , , , ,

Happy belated 4th of July! Having recently come together to celebrate the spirit and freedom our great nation offers. I hope you took some well-deserved time to relax, recharge, and appreciate time with loved ones. Independence Day is a refreshing, early-summer break, lighting up not just the evening sky. As well as, reigniting our sense of balance, relaxation, and well-being. The hot summer vibe is here.

Much like a holiday provides solace from your daily grind, a financial sanctuary offers peace in our economic landscape. It’s a place where you can rest easy, knowing your finances are secure, allowing you the freedom to rejuvenate without constant worry.

1. Safety Nets: As your home shields you from the elements, an emergency fund protects against unforeseen financial storms.

2. Growth Spaces: Just as gardens bloom with care, diversified investments foster growth and long-term security.

3. Withdrawal Zones: Contributing to a Roth IRA now can allow you some well-timed tax advantages later when relaxation requires spontaneity and indulgence.

Let the summertime vibe propel you into a continual journey towards stronger, smarter financial habits. As read on social media and media outlet headlines, it seems every week there’s a new acronym to label the US economy. The “vibe” of the general population, this week it’s FOGO: The Fear of Getting Old.

But the movement gained traction years ago with FOMO, created to describe millenials’ (or anyone’s) fear of missing out. Then the pendulum quickly swung in the other direction as JOMO, the Joy of Missing Out, took over during the pandemic. You may also have heard of DINKs (double income, no kids), FIRE (financial independence, retire early), and HENRY (high earner, not rich yet). How about HIFI (high income, financially insecure)? Or ALICE (asset limited, income constrained, employed)?

Acronyms distract from the core issue: How to cope with the natural fears that arise when taking risks and living life to the fullest. The good news is you don’t have to fear aging or missing out. Together, we can assess the level of risk you’re comfortable with when pursuing your financial goals, leaving you with a sense of faith and freedom. Here’s to creating your sanctuary of financial well-being!

Last Week

As for last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.6%, the S&P 500 gained 0.9%, and the Nasdaq was higher by 0.3%. Year to date, the Dow is higher by 6%, the S&P is up 18%, and the Nasdaq is higher by 23%. Also, last week included good inflation news. CPI was 3.0% for June, down 0.3% from May. Core CPI dropped 0.1% from the prior month. Mortgage rates fell to 6.89% for the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. Gas prices rose a penny to $3.49 per gallon for the average price of regular gas. The Atlanta Fed indicators are forecasting growth of 2.0% for the 2Q.

The Week Ahead – Earnings Vibe

Wall Street and the rest of the nation will continue to monitor developments regarding the attempted assignation of former President Trump. Wall Street will continue to ponder whether an interest rate cut is likely in September, as a case for a cut seems to be building. Chairman Powell speaks on today in Washington, D.C. and his remarks will be telecast live. Though he spoke on Capitol Hill last week, but those comments were before key data showed consumer inflation slowing. Tomorrow, Retail Sales data is released. Then housing data and industrial production later in the week.

Earnings reports kick into high gear this week, starting with financials. Today, Goldman Sachs and BlackRock report. Tuesday it’s Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and PNC Financial. Only 5% of S&P 500 companies have reported so far. General expectations are for 8%-12% earnings growth for 2Q. This follows 8% growth in 1Q and 10% growth in 4Q23.

The next Fed rate decision comes on July 31, with odds at 6% for a cut. Not very likely at the moment. By mid-September, there is a big jump in the odds to 96% for a rate cut. Accordingly, this spike follows the good news on inflation last week and the jobs report the week prior. For the November meeting, the odds are 99%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Click here if you would like to learn more about your options and if we can assist you with your wealth management, investment, and retirement planning.

Erie CO Financial Advisor; investments, wealth management, retirement income planning; Boulder, Broomfield, Louisville, Niwot, Windsor, Berthoud, CO

This website is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be specific advice or recommendations. For specific advice or recommendations you would need to meet directly with one of our advisers. This is not a solicitation or offer of service in states we are not licensed in.

Could there be a link between investing and wellbeing?

jim Financial advisor, investment strategy, Retirement Planning, wealth planning strategies , , ,
wellbeing

Over the past few years, we’ve seen a huge shift in society’s attitude towards health and wellbeing. We’re now generally more aware of the importance of good mental health. Thankfully, there is now a greater number of options available for people looking for help.

From meditation apps to supportive techniques and advice on ‘self-care’. There are many different ways we can keep on top of our mental fitness. Almost in the same way as we can our physical fitness.

But there is another aspect of mental health that isn’t as widely discussed. That’s the link between wealth and happiness.

Money is of course top of the list when it comes to issues most people worry about.

Whether it’s regarding short-term finances or our long-term future, financial insecurity can cause serious anxiety and low self-esteem.

But even though it often seems tempting to ignore money worries, recent research suggests that tackling the issues head-on can actually make people feel better than not doing it at all.

And by this they mean something as simple as opening an investment account.

In Blackrock’s Global Investor Pulse, which each year asks what people think and feel about their financial health, they report that once people start investing, 43% feel happier about their financial future, 36% of people have a higher feeling of wellbeing and 19% feel less stressed.

The results say this is true regardless of wealth, age, gender or life stage. Even more encouraging is that new investors say the improvement in their mood is immediate.

For those of you who already have a financial plan, this may simply be interesting to note. I’d love to know if you feel you are happier as a result of knowing that you have a plan in place. And even more interesting would be whether – as the research suggests – this feeling was immediate.

But it may be more meaningful to people you know who aren’t currently investing their money. Currently 63% of British adults hold no market-based investments at all. The reasons range from finding it too difficult to understand and feeling as if ‘investing is just for experts’.

However, now might be as good as any to enter the market for the first time. And tiny steps can have a huge impact. Even investing small amounts of money can lead to a greater return. Versus just having it in a savings account where interest rates are at an all-time low.

If you think it would be helpful for me to talk to anyone in need of a financial second option, then please pass on my details – I’d be happy to give them a call. Afterall, the results also say that 76% of investors who use a financial adviser report having a positive sense of wellbeing, and who am I to argue with that?!

Click here if you would like to learn more about your options and if we can assist you with your wealth management, investment, and retirement planning.

This website is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be specific advice or recommendations. For specific advice or recommendations you would need to meet directly with one of our advisers.

Financial Review – Why now is still a good time

jim Financial advisor, Financial Review, investment strategy, Retirement Planning, wealth management, wealth planning strategies , , , ,
financial review

Isn’t it funny how quickly we adapt? Who would have thought that video conferencing would have become such an important part of life. And in fact a lifeline for many? It’s helped friends and families to keep in touch and enabled businesses to keep running during tough times. It’s certainly provided me with a helpful way of staying connected and providing financial review to clients.

Now, at the click of a button, I can invite you to a meeting from your home. I can make it interactive by sharing our screens to show you documents and charts. Of course, these meetings also save time because we’re not having to travel to see each other. Not to mention servicing clients in different states.

But the ‘Zoom revolution’ has also brought with it a new phenomenon. The phrase ‘Zoom fatigue’ describes the feeling of drain after too many virtual meetings. Psychologists explain that the added pressure of being seen on screen is what adds to this feeling of exhaustion. The strain of having to actively show through a small screen that we’re interested and alert can be tiring.

It’s certainly true that face-to-face meetings are much more relaxed. It’s an altogether more natural experience. There’s an emotional connection that happens without thinking about it. It’s easier to sense when someone needs to pause and reflect, and there are more comfortable silences. There’s also less chance of us talking over one another.

That’s why I’ll always advocate face-to-face interaction – and why I’m looking forward to seeing you again one day soon hopefully! But in the meantime, I want you to feel confident that your review meetings and catch ups – whether on the phone or via video – will still be just as effective as in person.

I understand what an uncertain and worrying time it will be for many and that now more than ever you’ll want to talk to someone in a relaxed a way as possible.

As part of your financial review, I’ll listen to your concerns and provide you with feedback and solutions based on your individual needs and priorities. I’ll also make every effort to make things clear and simple.

Last week wrapped up Financial Literacy Month. I hope you were able to learn a few new things and apply them to your strategy. One of my goals in sharing information is to engage you with useful content so you are in the best position to grow your wealth – and maybe even have a little fun. Ask yourself these three questions to reveal how financially literate you are:

  1. Are you in control of your spending? Examining your money habits and creating a budget puts you in the driver’s seat toward smart money management.
  2. Are you saving for your future? Do you live within your means and are you investing in yourself first and foremost? If you need more info about how to best do this, ask me.
  3. Are you confident in reaching your current financial goals? Listen to your gut, and act accordingly.

If you answered yes to all three of these questions, you’re in good shape. But if you said no, don’t worry. Many people have had to reevaluate their priorities over the past year. I can help get you on the right track. I’ll also invite you to participate comfortably in the conversation and ask me any number of questions – I really mean it when I say there’s no such thing as a silly question!

I hope this provides reassurance that now is still a good time for a financial review. By re-setting your financial strategy at this point, I can put recent market performance and your longer-term financial goals into context. It will also give you the chance to pause, reflect and resettle your mind.

I look forward to speaking to you.

Click here if you would like to learn more about your options and if we can assist you with your wealth management, investment, and retirement planning.

This website is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be specific advice or recommendations. For specific advice or recommendations you would need to meet directly with one of our advisers.

How Quickly Will the Economy Recover

jim Economy, Financial advisor, Investing, investment strategy, Market Brief, Market Commentary, Market Outlook, Market Review, Retirement Planning, Stock Market, wealth management , , , , , , , ,
economic recovery

Now that the great short-squeeze has lost most of it’s air, it’s back to business as usual. The indexes shook off the weak job numbers and are looking ahead to the economy recovering and growing. Last week all indexes finished up.

Last Week

January jobs created less than 50,000 new jobs. On the positive side, unemployment fell from 6.7% to 6.3%. The number of Americans filing for unemployment also declined for the 3rd straight week. Most of the Nasdaq’s gains were attributed to good earnings reports, surpassing estimates. And the volatility index dropped back into the 20’s, calming the fears of an immediate 2021 correction. Readings from the ISM report were above 50, signaling expansion. This is good news when trying to grasp how quickly the economy will recover.

The Week Ahead

The economy is continuing to recover, both at home and abroad, as vaccination efforts spread. When a stumble comes, fiscal and monetary policy will undoubtedly offer an arm to stabilize or stand up. That remains supportive to equities, government bond yields, and credit markets. Roughly 59% of the S&P500 has reported earnings, and 81% have beaten EPS estimates. Per FactSet, the blended EPS growth rate is +1.7% y/y versus December 31’s estimate of -9.3%. For now, investors will continue economic implications of the race between widespread vaccination and virus mutation, the resumption of consumption, and the likelihood of higher prices or inflation across the economy.

Total after tax income was up 7.2% in 2020, the most in any year since 2000. Right now, there is plenty of demand for goods. Incomes and savings are up year-over-year. While production is not. It is supply that is hurting. The perfect recipe for inflation. A very real threat to the long-term health of the US economy. This we will keep an eye on. Year-to-date index performance; Dow up 1.77%, S&P up 3.48%, and Nasdaq up 7.51% through the close on Friday.

Have a safe week!

Click here if you would like to learn more about your options and if we can assist you with your wealth management, investment, and retirement planning.

This website is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be specific advice or recommendations. For specific advice or recommendations you would need to meet directly with one of our advisers.