Stock Market Archives - Page 3 of 5 - Rocky Mountain Financial Solutions

Summer is here – will stocks melt up or cool off?

jim Financial advisor, Market Brief, Market Commentary, Market Outlook, Market Review, Stock Market June 8, 2021June 8, 2021financial advisor, market brief, Market Commentary, Market Outlook, Market Review, Stock Market

Last week, stocks finished higher after mostly solid economic data, including labor numbers that showed steady progress. Since the 10-year Treasury yield rally began in August 2020, there have been two main consolidation periods. What might be the next catalyst for a move in interest rates? The S&P 500 Index closed within 3 points of its all-time closing high of 4,232.60. Last week all indexes finished up slightly; Dow up 0.69%, S&P 0.64%, and Nasdaq 0.49%.

Last Week

The S&P 500 Index gained 0.64% last week, closing within 3 points of its all-time closing high of 4,232.60. The index has steadily climbed back after hitting its mid-May lows as inflation fears weighed on the index with consumer discretionary and information technology taking the biggest hits. Investors have continued to digest inflation concerns against their expectations for the equities markets. Stocks levitated higher by less than 1% for the week after mostly solid economic data, including labor numbers that showed steady, if not overwhelming, progress. Treasury yields fell after the May non-farm payrolls report came in at a solid gain of 559,000. This was much higher than the 266K the previous month, but lower than the expected 675K.

This led to Friday’s rally with data conveying an improving employment picture in the U.S. recovery. The recovery may be slower than expected. Leading markets to assume the Federal Reserve will continue in its accommodative monetary policies. Nearly half the states have cut overly generous jobless benefits, the unemployment rate dropped to 5.8% in May versus 6.1% in April, and average hourly earnings are up 2.0% versus a year ago. Initial jobless claims fell for the 5th week in a row to 385,000.

The expectation of a quicker recovery in global demand for crude oil helped it advance 4.98% last week, closing at $69.62 per barrel on Friday. This propelled the energy sector be the top performer of the week. OPEC agreed to continue gradually easing production cuts.

The Week Ahead

Since the 10-year Treasury yield rally began in August 2020, there have been two main consolidation periods. The first came just below 1%, beginning in November 2020 to January 2021. The second began in April 2021 and continues today, with the yield currently near 1.56%. The next catalyst? Last week the Federal Reserve said that it plans to start selling its portfolio of corporate bonds and exchange-traded funds that it bought during the pandemic. This is not expected to influence the market much. Recent economic data has been encouraging. But not so strong that the Fed would consider tapering its bond buying just yet.

The next Fed meeting is scheduled for June 15-16. This week offers an update on U.S. inflation along with 10-year and 30-year bond auctions, all of which could produce interest rate volatility. The U.S. trade balance came out today, and consumer sentiment on Friday. The week closes with day 1 of the G7 meetings in London, where Treasury Secretary Yellen looks for support to rewrite international tax rules. Year-to-date index performance; Dow up 13.56%, S&P up 12.62% 6.8%, and Nasdaq up 7.19% through the close on Friday.

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This website is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be specific advice or recommendations. For specific advice or recommendations you would need to meet directly with one of our advisers.

Summer Road Trips and Stock Market Near Highs

jim Financial advisor, Market Brief, Market Commentary, Market Outlook, Market Review, Stock Market June 2, 2021June 2, 2021financial advisor, market brief, Market Commentary, Market Outlook, Stock Market

Summer is the time to hit the open road and explore this big country. But with long road trips can come high expenses – make sure you don’t let unexpected costs creep in while planning the perfect trip. Managing finances is a lot like taking a road trip: You’re setting your sights on a goal and planning the best route to get there. Keep in mind it’s optimal to get an early start (saving), stay on the right roads (budget), and arrive safely at your destination (retirement).

Last week, stocks posted slight gains of 1-2%+ to close out the month of May. Overall, the rapidly expanding U.S. economy continued to forge ahead, with jobless claims hitting another pandemic-era low of 406,000. Inflation is still running hot. Oil prices jumped 4% after an inventory draw of 1.7 million barrels. Bitcoin finished with a small gain but remained volatile, and several Fed governors commented on the benefits of a digital dollar backed by the central bank.

This short week kicks off with inflation updates from the Europe. Last Friday, President Biden laid out a $6 trillion fiscal 2022 budget proposal. Likely to stir up debates lasting through the summer and possibly longer. The end of the week is busy with labor reports. Might we see jobless claims fall under 400,000 for the first time in 14 months? After last month’s surprise drop in non-farm payrolls, analysts anticipate 670,000 jobs to have been created in May. The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to tick down under 6%, steady progress but still a long way away from where the Fed would consider any major monetary policy changes. Year-to-date index performance; Dow up 12.8%, S&P up 11.9%, and Nasdaq up 6.6% through the close on Friday.

If you have any questions on your road trip journey, please reach out – I’m here to help guide you. And don’t forget, I’m happy to assist as your automatic blind spot detection for things you may not see that could put you at risk. Just ask! So rest easy, enjoy the ride, and let’s make this one of the best summers ever. Take care, be safe, and post a picture or two of your road trip.

Click here if you would like to learn more about your options and if we can assist you with your wealth management, investment, and retirement planning.

Crypto Freefall and Your Portfolio

jim Financial advisor, Market Brief, Market Commentary, Market Outlook, Market Review, Stock Market May 24, 2021May 24, 2021financial advisor, market brief, Market Commentary, Market Outlook, Market Review, Stock Market

Markets ended flat after an up and down week and crypto fell across the board. The growth-oriented Nasdaq outperformed the Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000. The economic calendar is light until Thursday, when we get a second look at U.S. Q1 GDP. Monthly durable goods report should offer a glimpse into how supply chains are holding up. The Ethereum Liquid Index (ELX) came crashing back to earth last week. The Dow down 0.43%, S&P 0.39%, and Nasdaq 0.33%.

Last Week

Markets survived another bout of volatility in a roller coaster week. Turbulence in risk assets was partially sparked by a huge selloff in Bitcoin and other crypto currencies. China banned financial institutions from providing services related to the digital transactions. Crypto Bitcoin plunged from $45,000 to near $30,000 before recovering to $36,000.

Treasury yields briefly spiked after the April Fed meeting minutes released. The minutes mentioned that a strong pickup in economic activity would warrant discussions about tightening monetary policy. Chairman Powell reiterated that the recovery remains “uneven and far from complete” and hasn’t shown enough progress for policy change. Housing data cooled a bit. New construction dropped 9.5% in April and existing sales off 2.7%. Builder confidence remains strong due to lack of inventory, low interest rates, and plenty of home buyers. U.S. manufacturing stayed robust even as the Empire State and Philly Fed Manufacturing Indexes came in slightly below expectations.

Week Ahead

The economic calendar is light until Thursday, when we’ll get a second look at U.S. Q1 GDP, no change expected from the +6.4% estimate. The monthly durable goods report should offer a glimpse into how supply chains dealing with material shortages and consumer demand. Housing reports in focus with new home sales and mortgage applications are released. Pending home sales may follow last week’s cooling trend. Unemployment claims expected to fall again. On Friday, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the PCE Price Index, will provide another check on spending behavior. Chicago PMI rounds out the month ahead of Memorial Day weekend.

The Ethereum Liquid Index (ELX), a crypto currency index, came crashing back to earth last week. It had been on a steady climb for the previous 12 months. Posting more than a 2,000% gain at the highs. From those highs, it took 6 days to cut the price in half. A 50% cut isn’t nearly as unusual in crypto as in equity markets, the increased volatility may stick around longer.

Year-to-date index performance; Dow up 11.77%, S&P up 10.65%, and Nasdaq up 4.52% through the close on Friday. Have a fun and safe upcoming holiday weekend!

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So what is Dogecoin?

jim Financial advisor, Market Brief, Market Commentary, Market Review, Stock Market May 10, 2021May 10, 2021financial advisor, market brief, Market Commentary, Stock Market

In a week packed with important economic announcements, a late rally left major indices mixed. The S&P 500 and Dow Industrials scored new all-time highs, while the Nasdaq dipped. The famous question from the SNL skit, “so what is Dogecoin” is gaining plenty of attention, but remains unanswered? The Dow up 2.72%, S&P up 1.26%, and Nasdaq down 1.48% for the week.

Last Week

In a week packed with important economic announcements, a late rally left major indices mixed. The non-farm payrolls disappointed, with only 266,000 jobs created in April versus expectations of nearly 1 million. Increased government unemployment benefits continue. This contrasted with Wednesday’s ADP report which showed private sector payrolls advancing by 742,000 in April. The unemployment rate in April ticked up to 6.1%. In general, the labor market continues to improve, with last week’s new claims falling to a pandemic-era low of 498,000.

ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indexes, which are based on industry survey data, both came in lighter than expected for April. However, both indexes still signaled economic expansion. With economic activity picking up, but the jobs number sending mixed signals to the market,
policymakers are reluctant to change their conservative views of the recovery. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the jobs report “underscores the long-haul climb back to recovery.” She retains her expectation of full employment returning in 2022.

Crypto currency dogecoin fell 25% intra-day Sunday following the Musk hosted SNL. But what is it? According to CNBC, in 2013, software engineers Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer launched the satirical cryptocurrency as a way to make fun of bitcoin and the many other cryptocurrencies boasting grand plans to take over the world. “The joke is on Wall Street this time,” said Mati Greenspan, portfolio manager and founder of Quantum Economics. “What you have is a situation where teens on TikTok are outperforming even the smartest suits by thousands of percentage points.” Dogecoin hit an all-time high Friday afternoon. Dogecoin now has a market capitalization of about $92 billion following a six-month climb of more than 26,000 percent. Not much of a joke at the moment.

Week Ahead

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s hawkish rate hike commentary briefly sent worry through risk markets before she walked them back. Fed members continued to deflect inflation concerns. There are several FOMC member speeches today and tomorrow. So we will see if they maintain a united front. U.S. retail sales are expected to come in strong again. This continues the strong results from last month, a nearly 10% jump. Crypto currency dogecoin has rebounded 5% intra-day on Monday.

Year-to-date index performance; Dow up 13.62%, S&P up 12.68%, and Nasdaq up 6.70% through the close on Friday.

Click here if you would like to learn more about your options and if we can assist you with your wealth management, investment, and retirement planning.

Erie CO Financial Advisor with a focus on investments, wealth management, and retirement planning in Boulder, Louisville, Niwot, Lafayette, Windsor, Berthoud, CO

Proposed Capital Gains Tax Rate Increase and Your Money

jim Financial advisor, Market Brief, Market Commentary, Market Outlook, Stock Market April 26, 2021April 26, 2021financial advisor, market brief, Market Commentary, Market Outlook, Market Review, Stock Market

Stocks ended mostly flat on the week, with an abrupt tremor on Thursday after President Biden proposed a sharp increase in the capital gains tax rate. Housing market and job reports remain strong. The Nasdaq-100 sits just below all-time highs. Indexes for the week; the Dow down 0.42%, S&P down 0.11%, and Nasdaq down 0.25%.

Last Week

Government stimulus, monetary policy, and vaccinations have led indexes to reach near all time highs. President Biden’s proposal to increase capital gains tax rates to 39.6%, led to a severe drop on Thursday afternoon. The markets quickly recovered on Friday. Housing data continued to grab headlines, with the median selling price for existing U.S. homes up 17.2% year-over-year to $329,100 in March. Existing home sales actually dropped 3.7% last month due to supply being so limited, while new home sales in March increased 20.7% month-over-month and 66.8% year-over-year. The average sales price of new homes also increased 6% from the prior year. Jobless claims fell to a pandemic era low of 547,000. This is the lowest weekly level since March 2020.

Week Ahead

The Federal Reserve likely will not be changing monetary policy at Wednesday’s meeting. However, with economic data improving and inflation perhaps moving towards 4%, investors will be listening closely for clues about a shift in strategy. On Thursday, we will get our first look at Q1 GDP, with strong growth of 6.6% expected. The other main event this week is a slew of earnings reports. This includes a third of S&P500 companies and many of the important names in the Nasdaq, such as Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, and Google.

The week will close out with U.S. pending home sales and several GDP reports from Europe and Canada. Before getting up in arms regarding the increased capital gains tax, consider this news was a reaction to the proposal. Also, this proposal only impacts individuals earning more than $1m. Year-to-date index performance; Dow up 11.23%, S&P up 11.29%, and Nasdaq up 8.76% through the close on Friday.

Click here if you would like to learn more about your options and if we can assist you with your wealth management, investment, and retirement planning.

Erie, CO financial advisor with a focus on investments, wealth management, and retirement planning in Boulder, Louisville, Niwot, Lafayette, Windsor, Berthoud, CO.