From Halloween to Fall Back – Market Brief Nov 1, 2022

halloween

With Halloween behind us, I wanted to share some updates that I thought you’d enjoy. A mix of timely information about what is going on right now. Halloween is unique in that it’s filled with sights and sounds that try to tempt our fear. Sometimes it make us feel uncomfortable or afraid — with much of it staged. 

It reminds me of the acronym F.E.A.R.: False Evidence Appearing Real. Be on the lookout for F.E.A.R. because, while fun on Halloween, it has no place in your financial strategy. With the right planning, we can help put you on a well-lit path moving boldly toward your long-term goals. Even amid troubling economic changes. As always, I’m right here with you through it all.

The next big event coming up is when we fall back an hour. Are you planning on sleeping away the extra hour you gain during daylight saving time this weekend? If so, you’ve made a fantastic choice. Getting enough sleep is a key principle to enjoying good mental and physical health. According to the New York Times, more than a third of Americans are sleep-deprived, which can have detrimental effects on mood, memory, and health. Quite often, it’s the little things that we do that can make the biggest impact in our lives — particularly when it comes to our health — be it mental, physical, or financial.

The following market brief provides high level review of what happened last week, and what to expect the rest of this week.

Last Week. Despite disappointing earnings reports from large-cap technology companies, U.S. equity indexes finished higher after a stronger-than-expected GDP report. A modest deceleration in wage growth is positive but will not change the Fed’s path on rate hikes. The underlying picture highlighted slowing economic trends in key areas like consumer spending and investment. The S&P 500 Index rose nearly 4% solidifying two consecutive weeks of recovery from lows earlier in the month. The index currently sits almost 9% above the most recent bear market low. October finished as another whipsaw month returning nearly 9% as four of the last six months have seen the index move up or down greater than 8%.

Consumer confidence fell to a 3-month low in October as inflation and the economic outlook weighed. Sharply rising mortgage rates have crushed the housing market, as new home sales plunged 11% Month-over-Month in September and pending sales sank 10.2%. Home prices have started to come down but not nearly enough to offset higher borrowing costs.

This Week. A busy week looms with the U.S. jobs report due on Friday. A growing economy and continued low unemployment data leave the Federal Reserve primed to raise interest rates to fight inflation. A fourth straight 75bps lift from the Fed is priced into the markets. Investors will watch how Chair Powell might try to lay the ground for a change in pace going forward. Earnings season is winding down, but a handful of key releases will likely confirm slowing economic conditions. Year-to-date index performance; Dow down 9.57%, S&P down 18.15%, and Nasdaq down 29.04% through the close on Friday.

Investing in yourself isn’t indulgent — it’s mission-critical during these turbulent times. Please reach out if you feel inspired by what you’ve read or if I can be of further assistance in your financial strategy and goals. Hope you has a fun, safe Halloween. Have a great week.

Click here if you would like to learn more about your options and if we can assist you with your wealth management, investment, and retirement planning.

Financial Advisor Erie CO focus on investment and wealth management, retirement planning; Boulder, Louisville, Niwot, Lafayette, Windsor, Berthoud, CO

This website is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be specific advice or recommendations. For specific advice or recommendations you would need to meet directly with one of our advisers.

Market Brief – October 18, 2022

Last week, the S&P500 reached a new weekly closing low for 2022. U.S. equities finished a roller coaster week lower after a hotter-than-expected inflation report. This week, earnings season heats up. Earnings calls should discuss how corporations and consumers are holding up and if inflation is starting to relent. The Dow up 1.17%, S&P down 1.5%, and Nasdaq down 3.1%.

Last Week

In an up and down week, the gains were short lived, as September’s retail sales came in flat. The S&P 500 Index returned -1.53% last week. The previous weeks gain was eliminated. Which was only the second positive week out of the last nine weeks of trading. The index has trended down in 2022 and marked a closing low last Wednesday of 3,577.03. The last time the S&P 500 was in this range was late November 2020. Inflation expectations rose in the consumer sentiment report released on Friday.

Week Ahead

This week, earnings calls ramp up and how companies and consumers are dealing with inflation will largely be in focus. Goldman Sachs, Netflix, Tesla, Proctor & Gamble, and American Express are some of the key companies scheduled to report. Housing starts and existing home sales for September will be released as mortgage rates have surged to 20-year highs.

Year-to-date index performance; Dow down 18.45%, S&P down 24.82%, and Nasdaq up 34.03% through the close on Friday.

Financial Advisor Erie CO focus on investment and wealth management, retirement planning; Boulder, Louisville, Niwot, Lafayette, Windsor, Berthoud, CO

Click here if you would like to learn more about your options and if we can assist you with your wealth management, investment, and retirement planning.

This website is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be specific advice or recommendations. For specific advice or recommendations you would need to meet directly with one of our advisers.

Game-Changing 4th Quarter

4th quarter

October marks the start of a fresh quarter — the 4th quarter, last one of the year. Knowing you only have 3 months left in 2022, what are you feeling pressed to accomplish? Entrepreneur Michael Altshuler captured the familiar 4th quarter feeling in this way: “The bad news is time flies. The good news is you’re the pilot.” Let’s get your goals off the ground and fly. 

Now is a great time to connect if you’re in need of a strategy session heading into the year’s final stretch or if you have any questions about what’s on the horizon for 2023. Where could you use additional information, encouragement, or support? I can assist. The content below summarizes what happened last week and what’s ahead.

Last Week

It was another rough week for U.S. equities as the tight U.S. labor market kept inflation pressures high in wild trading. The S&P 500 Index dropped 3% to reach a new year-to-date low. The Nasdaq fell 2.7% as Apple backed off plans to increase iPhone production due to low demand. The S&P 500 Index lost value for the sixth out of the last seven weeks. The Dow also finished down 2.9% for the week ending last Friday.

A midweek stock rally was quickly squashed on Thursday when jobless claims came in at 193K. This figure signals that the employment picture is strengthening even as the Fed tries to cool things off. The inflation stress continued, reflected in the August Core PCE Price Index, which rose 0.6% Month-over-Month and 4.9% Year-over-Year. Both inflation numbers came in above estimates and higher than the prior month. U.S. home prices tumbled in July at the quickest rate in the index’s history as pending sales fell to levels last seen in April 2020.

On the bright side, consumer confidence rose, supported by rising wages and lower gas prices. Personal income rose 0.3% in August and spending gained 0.4%. Five-year inflation expectations declined to 2.7%, the lowest since July 2021.

This Week – Beginning of 4th Quarter

This week is filled with more Fed speak along with the monthly U.S. employment data. Unless the employment figures start to drop or the economy starts to exhibit significant stress signals, the Fed is likely to stay on an aggressive hiking path. Many economists believe, rate hikes, which have already impacted the housing market, will likely cause a recession by the second half of next year, with some probability of it starting early next year and some probability it starts as late as 2024. There is more economic pain to come; in certain areas, like the labor market, the pain is almost completely in front of us.

Year-to-date index performance; Dow down 21.0%, S&P down 24.8%, and Nasdaq down 32.4% through the close on Friday.

Click here if you would like to learn more about your options and if we can assist you with your wealth management, investment, and retirement planning.

Erie CO Financial Advisor; investments, wealth management, retirement income planning; Boulder, Broomfield, Louisville, Niwot, Windsor, Berthoud CO

This website is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be specific advice or recommendations. For specific advice or recommendations you would need to meet directly with one of our advisers.

Inflation Still Running Hot – Market Brief Sept 19, 2022

inflation

A high inflation report along with global recession fears sent equities falling, and transportation giant FedEx shook markets on Friday. Stocks fell for the fourth week in five, sinking to new September lows. The main indices all finished down last week; Dow -4.1%, S&P -4.7%, and Nasdaq -5.5%.

inflation
Inflation

Last Week – Inflation reports

The S&P 500 Index returned -4.73% last week, posting its worst return since the week ending June 17. The S&P 500 Index returned -4.73% last week, posting its worst return since the week ending June 17. Consumer prices were expected to fall more than they did in August. Dropping energy prices did not offset the increasing food and shelter costs. This report confirms the Feds aggressive stance on continued rate hikes to slow down growth. At the end of the week, Fedex withdrew forward full-year guidance and reported the economic outlook was gloomy. In other data, Mortgage Rates moved over 6%, to 6.02% for the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. This is the highest rate in 14 years. Gas prices declined, and now average $3.69 per gallon.

Week Ahead

Three central bank rate decisions will be anticipated this week. All investors focus will be squarely on Wednesday’s Fed meeting. Annual inflation number did drop last month from 8.5% to 8.3%. But this is still very far from the Fed’s target inflation rate of 2.0%. Rumors of a 1% rate hike are floating around. Many traders are anticipating 0.75% rate increase and further increases at meetings to come. The U.S. labor market remains very strong. The tight labor market makes halting growth much more difficult. The Fed continues fighting the balance of slowing growth without pushing the economy into a recession.

Year-to-date index performance; Dow down 15.2%, S&P down 18.7%, and Nasdaq down 26.8% through the close on Friday.

Click here if you would like to learn more about your options and if we can assist you with your wealth management, investment, and retirement planning.

Financial Advisor Erie CO focus on investment and wealth management, retirement planning; Boulder, Louisville, Niwot, Lafayette, Windsor, Berthoud, CO

This website is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be specific advice or recommendations. For specific advice or recommendations you would need to meet directly with one of our advisers.

What did the Fed Hint – Market Brief Aug 30, 2022

U.S. equities fell for a second straight week at the hands of the Fed hint of future rate hikes. Markets sold off sharply on Friday after Fed Chair Powell reiterated that tight monetary policy would remain. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP model is forecasting the odds of a 0.75% rate hike in September at near 60%. August’s employment report will be released Friday and could have a big impact on both projections. The Dow finished down 4.2%, S&P down 4.02%, and Nasdaq down 4.43% for the week ending Friday.

Fed Hint

Last Week

Last week, key indicators came out on inflation and GDP, but the markets looked right passed them. The only real headline was Fed Chairman Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole. Fed Chairman Powell confirmed in his 8-minute speech that the Fed will continue doing whatever it takes to push prices lower and keep them there. He talked about households having to endure “pain” as part of the effort to combat inflation. His speech likely is an inflection point for markets going forward. Did we really think the Federal Reserve was going to be dovish after improvement in only a few very minor inflation data points? The trading machines (algos) took over Friday while many were at the beach, leaving the overall market a bit illiquid.

Economists expected Powell to have a hawkish stance towards inflation. The Fed Chairman was more adamant and less forgiving than many thought he would be. Regarding raising interest rates, he said the Fed “will keep at it until we are confident the job is done.” And while rate increases would bring down inflation, “they will bring some pain to households and businesses…. the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.” Some experts interpreted the speech as a “no pivot.” This means that Powell is signaling rates won’t be lowered in 2023, as had been previously assumed. This tough stance is what sent markets lower and may well have an impact on stock prices this week too.

New Home Sales fell 13% in July to 511,000 (seasonally adjusted against June). This follows trends that showed similar slowdowns in Housing Starts, Building Permits, and Existing Home Sales. Yet the data is as expected, as a cooling housing market is a consequence of the Fed’s tightening monetary policy. Last week, Mortgage Rates ticked up to 5.55% from 5.13% for the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. Gas prices declined, and now average $3.88 per gallon.

Week Ahead – Fed Hint

September begins this week, and that means the August jobs report comes out on Friday. Wall Street sees Nonfarm Payrolls coming in at 300,000 for August. This level is strong and characteristic of a solid labor market. Economists see the Unemployment Rate sticking at 3.5% for August. That’s the same level as just prior to the pandemic. Chairman Powell referenced jobs in his Friday speech, saying “The labor market is particularly strong, but it is clearly out of balance, with demand for workers substantially exceeding the supply of available workers.” The one areas of concern is layoffs in the Fintech and online shopping sectors. But 300,000 new jobs still indicates an economy that remains on a growth track.

The S&P 500 posted the worst average monthly price change in September. Joining February as the only two months to record declines. Yet September stands alone as the only month in which the market fell more frequently than it rose. Year-to-date index performance; Dow down 11.16%, S&P down 14.87%, and Nasdaq down 22.39% through the close on Friday.

Click here if you would like to learn more about your options and if we can assist you with your wealth management, investment, and retirement planning.

Erie CO Financial Advisor; investments, wealth management, retirement income planning; Boulder, Broomfield, Louisville, Niwot, Windsor, Berthoud CO

This website is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be specific advice or recommendations. For specific advice or recommendations you would need to meet directly with one of our advisers.